<p>Lin Benli predicted in March last year in the Sing Tao Daily that once the Hang Seng Index breaks through 25,000 points, rising to 28,000 points would be considered the &#34;minimum consumption.&#34; By September last year, he reiterated concerns about the Hang Seng Index rising above 28,000 points. The Hang Seng Index finally broke through 28,000 points at the end of January this year, and Lin Benli admitted that it was a month later than he had predicted. Recently, as the Hang Seng Index adjusted to the 26,000 point level, he reaffirmed his prediction from the end of last year, estimating that the Hang Seng Index would fluctuate between 23,000 and 30,000 points this year. If the United States continues to cut interest rates and the US dollar index falls back to around 90, it is expected that the Hang Seng Index could rise above 30,000 points.</p>
<p>He first analyzed the recent situation of Hong Kong stocks, noting that the technology index has fallen more than 20% from its high in October last year, entering a technical bear market. The stocks that have performed well are mainly in traditional finance and real estate, such as HSBC (005), which previously reached HKD 141.5, and New World Development (016), which hit a high of HKD 135.7 last Friday. He mentioned that a similar situation has occurred in the US stock market, where oil stocks like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), as well as telecom stocks like AT&amp;T (T) and Verizon (VZ), have recently outperformed many technology stocks.</p>
<h2>Buy Large Tech Stocks at Low Prices for Profit</h2>
<p>Lin Benli openly expressed his preference for young investors who buy technology stocks, noting that in recent months, their investments have lagged behind those of &#34;old investors&#34; who favor traditional stocks. He suggested that students holding these traditional stocks might take the opportunity to &#34;lighten their positions,&#34; selling a portion to secure profits, and wait for the market to decline before buying back, using some of the cash to invest in profitable large technology stocks.</p>
<p>Additionally, with gold prices recently rising to USD 5,000 per ounce, Lin Benli admitted that even those who do not invest in gold need not feel envious, as compared to the non-yielding gold, holding HSBC and Bank of China (2388) in Hong Kong stocks has yielded substantial profits, with over 70% returns in the past year, comparable to the rise in gold prices during the same period.</p>
<p>Looking ahead to the prospects for Hong Kong stocks, Lin Benli maintains his forecast of fluctuations between 23,000 and 30,000 points this year. If the United States continues to cut interest rates and the US dollar index falls, based on past performance, when the Hang Seng Index reaches 30,000 points, the US dollar index has typically been at levels between 89 and 90.</p>
<h2>Pay Attention to Over Ten Economic Indicators</h2>
<p>At the same time, he provided students with over ten economic indicators for reference, including the US dollar index, the CFETS index for the renminbi, Hong Kong's GDP, net inflows of Hong Kong Stock Connect, bank system balances, and one-month interbank offered rates. The more indicators that meet the targets, the stronger the support for the Hang Seng Index to challenge 30,000 points or even higher levels.</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Indicator</strong></td>
<td><strong>Latest (as of February 13)</strong></td>
<td><strong>Lin Benli's Target</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Hang Seng Index</td>
<td>26,567</td>
<td>30,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)</td>
<td>52.3 (January)</td>
<td>Above 50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>US Dollar Index</td>
<td>96.92</td>
<td>Below 98.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Renminbi CFETS Index</td>
<td>98.34</td>
<td>Above 96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>USD to HKD</td>
<td>7.8166</td>
<td>Below 7.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>RMB to HKD</td>
<td>1.1319</td>
<td>Above 1.144</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1-Month HIBOR</td>
<td>2.51464%</td>
<td>Below 2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>HKD Banking System Balance</td>
<td>53.9 billion</td>
<td>Above 100 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Stock Connect (Shanghai and Shenzhen)</td>
<td>67.788 billion (January)</td>
<td>Above 40 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total Retail Sales Value</td>
<td>35 billion (December) ↑ 6.6%</td>
<td>Above 36 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GDP Growth Rate (Year-on-Year)</td>
<td>3.8% (Q4)</td>
<td>Above 2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>3.8% (October to December)</td>
<td>Below 3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

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<p>Lin Benli predicts that the Hang Seng Index will fluctuate between 23,000 and 30,000 points this year, suggesting that investors holding traditional financial and real estate stocks may take the opportunity to reduce their holdings and shift towards large technology stocks. He pointed out that despite the rise in gold prices, the returns from holding HSBC and Bank of China are comparable to gold, with returns exceeding 70% over the past year. Lin Benli analyzed the performance of Hong Kong and U.S. stocks, believing that traditional stocks outperform technology stocks, especially in the U.S. oil and telecommunications sectors</p>

- Lin Benli projected that the Hang Seng Index (HSI) would fluctuate between 23,000 and 30,000 points this year, with a possible rise above 30,000 if the U.S. continues to lower interest rates.  
- He noted a recent correction in the HSI to 26,000 points and highlighted the performance of traditional stocks over tech stocks in recent months.  
- Lin recommends students with traditional stocks to consider profit-taking and suggests monitoring various economic indicators to better evaluate market conditions.

Stheadline

EFUND GOLD MI-R

China Merchants CSI BANK AH Price ETF

HSBC HOLDINGS

GF Fund CSI HK Connect Financials(ex Banks) Thematic ETF

Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF

ISHARESHSI

Sprott GLD Miners Etf

ChinaAMC Hang Seng ETF

Fullgoal CSI 800 Banks ETF

China Southern CSI Banks ETF

Hang Seng Index

iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners

Bank Of China

Bank of China

Hwabao WP CSI Banks ETF

Sprott JR Gold Miners ETF

CSOP HSI ETF

HSBC Holdings plc ADRhedged

ChinaAMC SSE Financials Sector ETF Initiating Fund

Huaan CSI Banks ETF

ChinaAMC Gold ETF

ChinaAMC CSI SH-SZ-HK Gold Industry Equity ETF

EFUND GOLD MI ETF

iShares Gold Trust

TRACKER FUND

ChinaAMC CSI Banks ETF

Hwabao WP CSI All Share Investment Banking & Brokerage ETF

BANK OF CHINA

WP CSI Banks ETF

SPDR Gold Shares

China Southern Hang Seng ETF

EFUND GOLD MI-U

HSBC

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF

HSBC's Bank of China-linked dividends earn 70% without losing to gold; traditional stocks in Hong Kong and the U.S. are thriving. Lin Benli: It's a good opportunity to reduce positions