<p>IBM's system elaborates on the quantum computing technology path, positioning superconducting qubits as the dominant solution for universal quantum computing, and sets clear milestones for achieving quantum advantage by 2026 and fault-tolerant computing by 2029, providing the market with the most operationally feasible technical timeline to date.</p>
<p>According to news from the Wind Trading Desk, on February 20, Barclays held an &#34;Unlocking Quantum 1.0&#34; investor event, where Dr. Alessandro Curioni, Vice President of IBM Research for Europe and Africa and an IBM Fellow, attended and detailed IBM's quantum computing strategy. He stated that <strong>the industry will enter the &#34;practical phase&#34; between 2024 and 2025,</strong> with systems equipped with about 100 qubits and a two-qubit error rate close to 10⁻³ surpassing the simulation capability limits of classical computers; the next-generation Nighthawk processor will support &#34;clean, rigorous, and provable&#34; quantum advantage by 2026, while the fault-tolerant system in 2029 will mark a true technological turning point.</p>
<p>Barclays analysts Laia Marin i Sola and Rohan Bahl believe that recent breakthroughs in error rate control, scalability, and classical integration make these timelines realistically feasible. They pointed out in their report that investors who deeply understand the complete supply chain of quantum computing and its impact on the semiconductor industry will be able to seize opportunities for technological breakthroughs while more effectively managing technological risks.</p>
<p>In terms of application prospects, quantum advantage is expected to first materialize in the fields of materials and chemistry, with complex optimization scenarios in finance and logistics also benefiting. Dr. Alessandro predicts that <strong>the maturity of the fault-tolerant system in 2029 will trigger a quantum &#34;ChatGPT moment&#34; in the field of multi-objective optimization across industries, followed by deep breakthroughs in engineering materials and drug development.</strong></p>
<h2>Focus 1: Superconducting Qubits - The Dominant Route for Universal Quantum Computing</h2>
<p>Dr. Alessandro emphasized that <strong>discussions on quantum computing must first clarify the concept of &#34;universal quantum computing&#34; - machines that represent information using continuous quantum states rather than binary bits, with their representational capacity expanding exponentially as the number of qubits increases.</strong></p>
<p>IBM has chosen superconducting qubits as its core technology route for three reasons: in terms of quality, the single qubit error rate has significantly improved from 10⁻¹ to 10⁻⁴ over six years; in terms of scalability, superconducting qubits can be manufactured using mature photolithography processes, highly compatible with existing semiconductor production lines; in terms of speed, their gate operation speed is thousands of times faster than competing routes such as ion traps and neutral atoms. Dr. Alessandro believes that the compatibility with semiconductor manufacturing and decades of accumulated microwave engineering experience give superconducting qubits a structural advantage in the practicalization of universal quantum computers.</p>
<h2>Focus 2: Engineering Challenges Replace Physical Bottlenecks</h2>
<p>Dr. Alessandro pointed out that <strong>the core obstacle to scaling quantum processors has shifted from the physical level to the engineering level.</strong> IBM has steadily improved quantum coherence time, reduced error rates, and advanced packaging technology upgrades, including transitioning from wire bonding to high-density ribbon connections and three-dimensional architectures
Current major engineering challenges include: increasing control line density within low-temperature systems, managing thermal loads in a 10 millikelvin environment, maintaining uniformity and yield as quantum processors scale to hundreds or even thousands of qubits, and integrating control electronic devices that can operate in extreme environments. Dr. Alessandro stated that these challenges align closely with the core expertise of the semiconductor industry, and IBM's accumulation in photolithography, materials engineering, low-temperature technology, and microwave control provides a credible technological path for the commercialization of large-scale quantum processors.</p>
<h2>Focus Three: Quantum Advantage in 2026, Fault-Tolerant Computing in 2029</h2>
<p><strong>IBM's technology roadmap unfolds in three phases.</strong> Currently in the &#34;practical phase,&#34; quantum systems can perform specific tasks that surpass the simulation capabilities of classical computers.</p>
<p><strong>2026 will be a critical milestone.</strong> IBM will achieve quantum advantage through the next-generation Nighthawk processor, which integrates more couplers, supports deeper circuits, and can execute up to 5,000 gate operations. IBM has also established strict public evaluation standards and created an open &#34;quantum advantage tracker&#34; to ensure the transparency, repeatability, and independent verification of results.</p>
<p><strong>Looking ahead to 2029, IBM expects to achieve fault-tolerant quantum computing,</strong> at which point the system will be equipped with approximately 200 logical qubits and capable of executing about 100 million gate operations—an increase of about two orders of magnitude from the current 5,000. Dr. Alessandro characterizes this milestone as a true turning point for quantum systems to achieve transformative impact.</p>
<h2>Focus Four: Quantum-Classical Hybrid Computing Will Generate New Computing Demands</h2>
<p>Dr. Alessandro clearly stated that classical computing and quantum computing will coexist in the long term rather than replace each other. <strong>Classical computing has irreplaceable advantages in arithmetic operations such as multiplication, while quantum computing excels at tasks like large number factorization that classical computers cannot handle efficiently.</strong></p>
<p>It is noteworthy that quantum computing itself also requires support from classical computing power—especially in the decoding phase of error correction, where the future fault-tolerant systems will have significantly increased demands for classical computing power. Dr. Alessandro believes that the next wave of major innovation will stem from hybrid algorithms that combine quantum and classical computing, which have extremely high requirements for communication latency between quantum processors and CPUs/GPUs. This integration demand has driven IBM's recent collaboration with AMD, promoting the industry towards a tightly coupled, co-designed unified computing architecture that views classical and quantum computing power as an integrated computing stack.</p>
<h2>Focus Five: Chemistry and Optimization, Welcoming the &#34;ChatGPT Moment&#34; in 2029</h2>
<p>In terms of application pathways, Dr. Alessandro judges that <strong>the fields most likely to achieve quantum advantage earliest will be materials science and chemistry,</strong> as quantum physics naturally aligns with the core issues of these industries. The complex optimization problems in finance and logistics also hold significant potential, as classical algorithms face severe scalability bottlenecks in such scenarios, and quantum methods are expected to achieve qualitative breakthroughs in global optimization, resource allocation, and multi-variable decision-making
IBM's strategic focus is also shifting from isolated use cases to covering four major categories of algorithms: dynamical systems and partial differential equations, Hamiltonian systems and linear algebra, combinatorial optimization, and stochastic processes. These four categories of algorithms together constitute the core of enterprise-level critical business computing.</p>
<p>Dr. Alessandro predicts that the true &#34;ChatGPT moment&#34; of quantum computing will arrive around 2029, at which point fault-tolerant systems will achieve transformative breakthroughs in multi-objective optimization problems across various industries such as finance, logistics, and energy, and subsequently drive further revolutionary advancements in the fields of engineering materials, chemistry, and new drug development</p>

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<p>IBM establishes superconducting qubits as the core, aiming to achieve quantum advantage with the Nighthawk processor by 2026 and reach the fault-tolerant computing milestone by 2029. The technical focus has shifted from physical breakthroughs to engineering scalability, emphasizing the tight coupling of quantum and classical computing power. Applications will first land in the fields of chemistry and materials, and will welcome the "ChatGPT moment" in the optimization field by 2029</p>

- IBM has outlined its quantum computing path, positioning superconducting qubits as the leading solution, with milestones set for achieving quantum advantage in 2026 and fault-tolerant computing by 2029.  
- Barclays’ investor event featured Dr. Alessandro Curioni discussing IBM’s advancements, highlighting that a system with approximately 100 qubits will surpass classical computing capabilities by 2024-2025.  
- Anticipation for quantum advantages is focused on materials and chemical sectors, with significant breakthroughs expected to emerge in various fields by 2029, dubbed the "ChatGPT moment" for quantum computing.

Quantum Unlock 1.0: IBM elaborates on five key issues in quantum computing