The United States and Israel jointly launched a large-scale military strike, resulting in the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, causing the geopolitical landscape to face its most severe shock in decades. In the cryptocurrency market, which was the only one open over the weekend, prices completed a &#34;V-shaped&#34; reversal from a sharp decline to a rapid increase, reflecting deep divisions among investors regarding the direction of this conflict—these divisions will be tested when global markets open on Monday.
According to CCTV News, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated on the morning of February 28. The Israeli side stated that Khamenei and his senior aides, including Ali Shamkhani, the Secretary of Iran's Defense Council, and Mohammad Pakpour, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, were all killed in the airstrike.
The cryptocurrency market was the first to reflect changes in sentiment—digital assets sharply declined after news of the Israeli airstrike on Iran, but as Iranian state media confirmed Khamenei's assassination, the market quickly reversed and surged. Historical experience shows that as long as the market judges the strike to be tactical and limited, initial panic will be quickly digested, and Bitcoin has chosen to believe in a rapid resolution.
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Analysts believe that the market direction on Monday will depend on several core variables: whether the conflict can be quickly controlled, whether oil supply suffers substantial impact, and how the political vacuum left by Khamenei evolves. Analysts and intelligence agencies have outlined three distinctly different paths for investors.
<h2>Cryptocurrency Market Completes &#34;V-shaped&#34; Reversal, Official Confirmation Triggers Turning Point</h2>
Over the weekend, after news of the Israeli airstrike on Iran broke, Bitcoin and other digital assets experienced a significant decline, reflecting the market's initial risk-averse sentiment towards the sudden geopolitical event. As Iranian state media officially confirmed Khamenei's assassination, market sentiment quickly reversed, with major digital assets significantly increasing from their lows.
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This trend aligns closely with market patterns following similar shocks in recent years.
Bloomberg statistics show that during the last large-scale strike by Israel against Iran, precious metals and energy futures surged overnight, but as rhetoric from all sides softened, the market had largely stabilized by the opening. After the U.S. killed IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, oil and gold futures briefly soared, but major stock indices returned to stability within a few days. The common pattern in these precedents is that as long as the market judges the strike to be tactical and limited, initial panic will be quickly digested
However, Bloomberg macro strategist Michael Powell pointed out that there are significant structural differences in this situation. Trump's clear statement that &#34;once the action is over, the Iranians should take back the government&#34; has fundamentally changed the narrative framework of &#34;limited strikes&#34; that the market could rely on, making it difficult for investors to simply apply past pricing models.
<h2>Three Scenarios: The Core Disagreement is Whether the War is Prolonged</h2>
Analysts summarized the market trends after Monday's opening into three main scenarios, with the core disagreement being whether this military action is a one-time precision strike or the beginning of a prolonged conflict.
Scenario One: The situation quickly converges, and the shock is rapidly digested.
If Iran's retaliation remains limited and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains smooth, investors may interpret this strike as a &#34;decisive&#34; rather than a &#34;destabilizing&#34; action.
In this scenario, crude oil and gold may briefly spike before volatility subsides, with buyers entering at lower prices, and the narrative returning mid-week to earnings season, artificial intelligence, and Federal Reserve policy. Relevant historical precedents include market trends following the assassination of Soleimani in January 2020, as well as market reactions after Israel's &#34;Operation Guardian of the Walls&#34; and the U.S.'s &#34;Midnight Hammer&#34; operation last year.
Scenario Two: The conflict continues to escalate, and risk premiums are reassessed.
If the action evolves into a multi-front war of attrition, with proxy forces activated in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, etc., or if Iran attempts to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and strike regional energy infrastructure, the market will face a fundamental repricing.
Michael Powell warned that this would significantly widen the uncertainty window, pushing up oil prices and inflation expectations, forcing global risk premiums to reflect a more uncertain growth and inflation backdrop rather than a one-time tradable shock.
Scenario Three: Multiple pressures overlap, and systemic risk rises.
If soaring energy prices drive up inflation expectations, while U.S. Treasury yields rise and growth expectations decline, it will create a &#34;stagflationary combination&#34; that is historically difficult for the stock market to digest.
This scenario is not isolated—last week, the unexpectedly strong U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data constrained the Federal Reserve's easing space; early cracks appeared in the private credit market, leading to heavy selling of bank stocks. Analysts pointed out that at the current high valuation level of around 40 times the Shiller P/E ratio, overlapping pressures will severely compress the market's tolerance for error, and once a liquidity event is triggered, the correlation among various assets will tend to converge.
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<h2>The Direction of the Regime is Highly Uncertain, and There are Key Disagreements in Intelligence Predictions</h2>
According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian media reported on the 1st that after the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, the country will be led by Iranian President Pezeshkian, the Minister of Justice, and a jurist from the Guardian Council. Trump stated that the U.S. is &#34;making good progress&#34; in the airstrike operation, and a diplomatic solution is still &#34;easily&#34; achievable. He already has a &#34;suitable candidate&#34; in mind to take over the Iranian regime
U.S. intelligence agencies had studied multiple political scenarios before launching the airstrike. Several assessments from the intelligence community indicate that there is a significant gap between the political objectives set for this strike and the subsequent processes that the U.S. can realistically control.
According to The New York Times, one assessment suggests that the likelihood of a complete overhaul of the Iranian government is low; on the contrary, members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may strengthen their control over the regime but might be willing to limit the country's nuclear program or adopt a more conciliatory attitude towards the U.S. Intelligence agencies also believe that organized opposition forces within and outside Iran remain relatively weak.
Senate Intelligence Committee's chief Democrat Mark Warner warned that he has not seen any new intelligence indicating that the difficulty of regime change has decreased. He specifically pointed out that while Khamenei insists on advancing the nuclear enrichment program, he has not yet decided to push it to the point of actually manufacturing nuclear weapons, and a successor may change this stance—potentially increasing the risk of nuclear threats. Intelligence assessments also show that whoever formally takes over the position of the religious leader will be a hardliner, but their actual influence remains uncertain.
Former RAND Corporation researcher Alireza Nader also stated that U.S. and Israeli war planners may have underestimated the resilience of the Iranian regime and its &#34;ability to inflict significant harm on various parties.&#34;

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Historical experience shows that as long as the market judges the impact to be tactical and limited, initial panic will be quickly digested, and Bitcoin has chosen to believe in a rapid resolution model. Analysis suggests that the market direction on Monday will depend on several core variables: whether the conflict can be quickly controlled, whether oil supply suffers substantial impact, and how the political vacuum behind Khamenei evolves. The core disagreement lies in whether this military action is a one-time precision strike or the beginning of a prolonged conflict

- The U.S. and Israel launched a significant military strike resulting in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, causing a severe geopolitical shock.  
- The cryptocurrency market reacted with volatility, initially dropping sharply before reversing gains as news of Khamenei's death was confirmed.  
- Analysts anticipate three potential market scenarios based on the conflict's evolution: rapid de-escalation, sustained escalation, or a combination of pressures leading to systemic risk.

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The death of Khamenei raises the question for investors: "What happens next?" The only market that opened over the weekend has completed its transition from "sharp decline" to "sharp rise."