Bitcoin's V-shaped reversal after the escalation of the situation in the Middle East is being interpreted by some market participants as a positive signal for the opening of global risk assets on Monday.
Peter Tchir, a strategist at Academy Securities, stated in a report that as the only tradable risk asset over the weekend, Bitcoin has historically been a barometer of market sentiment, and its rebound indicates that risk appetite is recovering. Meanwhile, oil prices have already priced in some geopolitical risks, providing further support for the market to open in a risk-on mode on Monday.
With the evolution of the US-Iran situation, Bitcoin has reversed from a &#34;sharp decline&#34; to a &#34;sharp rise.&#34; Following reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iran, digital assets plummeted sharply, but as Iranian state media confirmed the assassination of Khamenei, the market quickly reversed and rose. Bitcoin not only regained lost ground but also rose above the levels prior to the outbreak of this conflict.
According to CCTV News, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed in an attack on the morning of February 28. The Israeli side stated that Khamenei and his senior aides, including Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran's National Defense Council, and Mohammad Pakpour, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, were all killed in the airstrike.
The report stated, he is optimistic about the market opening in a &#34;risk-on&#34; mode on Monday. He pointed out that oil prices have risen from about $60 per barrel at the end of last year to $72 last Friday, and some of the conflict risk premium has already been priced in by the market. In addition, after the Iranian leadership suffered a heavy blow, its strategic game logic has been disrupted—&#34;it is now time to seek a dignified exit.&#34;
<h2>Bitcoin's Role as a &#34;Barometer&#34;</h2>
The report indicated that this is the third time in recent years that Bitcoin has acted as a real-time barometer of market sentiment during a major Middle Eastern conflict outbreak over the weekend, with the initial reaction each time being a sharp drop, but this time, the rebound was completely different.
On April 13, 2024, Iran launched a large number of suicide drones at Israel, and the conflict also occurred during the early hours of Saturday when global markets were closed, with Bitcoin's initial reaction being a sharp decline.
From June 21 to 22, 2025, the &#34;Operation Midnight Hammer&#34; involved B-2 bombers carrying massive bunker-busting bombs to destroy nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, again occurring on a Saturday morning, leading to another knee-jerk drop in Bitcoin.
The key difference in this conflict compared to the previous two is that Bitcoin achieved a significant rebound after the sharp decline, and the final quote was higher than the levels before the event occurred. In the report, he interprets this trend as a &#34;risk-on&#34; signal. <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/bcbc1907-01f3-47c7-87e4-6e29f268306a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/bcbc1907-01f3-47c7-87e4-6e29f268306a.png"/>
<h2>Oil Prices Have Digested Some Conflict Risks</h2>
The energy market is a core variable in assessing the macroeconomic impact of the current conflict. Academy Securities strategist Peter Tchir outlined the multiple logics of oil prices in a report:
First, risks have been partially priced in. Brent crude oil has risen from about $60 per barrel at the end of last year to $72 per barrel last Friday. This increase includes both the demand for energy in the U.S. winter and a certain degree of conflict risk premium. This means that the &#34;bad news&#34; on oil prices has been significantly anticipated after Monday's opening.
Second, supply channels remain unobstructed. Tchir pointed out that there are currently no signs indicating that the Strait of Hormuz or other key oil transportation channels have been blocked. He stated: If there is an opportunity to step down without affecting the passage of channels, this is the core premise for oil prices not to spiral out of control.
Finally, buffer inventories provide a safety net. Major oil-consuming countries have ample crude reserves, and U.S. inventory levels are also relatively high. Therefore, short-term supply disruptions of about a week are expected to have limited impact. Based on these judgments, Tchir expects spot contracts to potentially rise to $80 but does not anticipate significant fluctuations in the forward curve

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Academy Securities strategists pointed out in a report that this is the third time Bitcoin has acted as a sentiment barometer during a weekend of conflict in the Middle East. In all three instances, there was a sharp decline followed by a rebound, with this rebound showing a significantly stronger momentum, releasing a clear signal of risk appetite recovery. They noted that based on oil price performance, the conflict premium has been partially digested, supply and inventory provide a buffer, geopolitical shocks are limited, and risk appetite is expected to return

- Following escalating tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin's V-shaped reversal is seen as a positive signal for global risk assets.  
- Strategist Peter Tchir notes that Bitcoin's role as a market sentiment indicator highlights a shift towards risk appetite, with oil prices adjusting to geopolitical risks.  
- The recent events, including the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, have already influenced market dynamics, positioning Bitcoin above pre-conflict levels and suggesting that the bad news in oil prices has been mostly priced in.

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"Bitcoin serves as a barometer for geopolitical conditions," will the market open on Monday with a return of risk appetite?