The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has suddenly escalated, and the fate of the A-share transportation sector is heading towards a fork. The Goldman Sachs research team assesses that the tanker sector and COSCO SHIPPING Energy are likely to become the biggest beneficiaries of this geopolitical conflict, while airlines, due to fuel cost exposure, face the largest profit downside risk among various sub-industries.
According to CCTV News, U.S. President Trump stated in a video speech on March 1st local time that the U.S. and Israel will continue military actions against Iran until all objectives are achieved. Media reports have successively announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and several tankers have begun to reroute around the area. The Strait of Hormuz carries nearly 40% of the world's maritime oil trade volume, with China being the primary destination for the related oil flows. The evolution of the situation has far-reaching implications for the global energy supply chain.
On March 2nd, the Goldman Sachs China transportation research team released a report indicating that the tanker sector and COSCO SHIPPING Energy have the largest upside potential among the transportation stocks they cover. In an extreme scenario where Iranian oil sanctions are completely lifted, about 5% of shipping demand will shift from shadow fleets to compliant fleets, at which point various types of crude oil tankers are expected to see an increase of about $30,000 per day in TCE (Time Charter Equivalent). The impact of rising oil prices on airline stocks is in the opposite direction—Goldman Sachs' sensitivity analysis shows that China Southern Airlines' profits are most sensitive to oil prices, with a 1% increase in oil prices leading to a 4.3% decline in its expected profits for 2026.
In terms of container shipping, Maersk and CMA CGM have announced the suspension of plans to return to the Red Sea, which may provide mild upward support for freight rates. Overall, the scale and duration of the conflict will be key variables in determining the extent to which these impacts are ultimately realized, and the current situation is still evolving.
<h2>Tankers: Short-term volume under pressure, mid-term replenishment effect may push up freight rates</h2>
Goldman Sachs believes that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will suppress tanker shipping demand in the short term, as nearly 40% of global maritime oil trade flows through this strait, and disruptions will directly reduce tanker scheduling demand.
However, once the blockade is lifted, buyers may engage in concentrated replenishment behavior, thereby providing additional upward momentum for tanker freight rates in the mid-term. Goldman Sachs also noted that the supply pattern in the VLCC market is undergoing structural changes—according to Lloyd's List, SinoKor has recently made significant purchases and leases of older VLCCs, leading to a noticeable increase in market concentration, which is expected to further support VLCC freight rates. Goldman Sachs' commodity research team judges that, given the lack of feasible alternative transport routes and the GDP losses caused by significant increases in oil and natural gas prices, a complete and sustained blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a tail scenario.
In the extreme scenario set by Goldman Sachs' report, if Iranian oil sanctions are completely lifted, the Iranian crude oil that does not require shadow fleets for transport will release about 5% of incremental shipping demand to compliant fleets. Based on historical price elasticity estimates, this will bring about $30,000 in incremental earnings per day for various types of crude oil tankers' TCE, and COSCO SHIPPING Energy's A-shares and H-shares may also gain an additional upside potential of approximately 42% and 39%, respectively
Goldman Sachs specifically pointed out that due to the high correlation between Iranian crude oil and VLCCs, combined with SinoKor's proactive integration of the VLCC market, the upward elasticity of VLCC freight rates may be more pronounced.
<h2>Airline Stocks: Earnings Most Sensitive to Oil Prices, China Southern Airlines First Affected</h2>
In contrast to tankers, airlines face a completely opposite directional impact. Goldman Sachs' sensitivity analysis shows that among the transportation sub-sectors it covers, airline earnings are most significantly impacted by rising oil prices.
Specifically, China Southern Airlines has the highest sensitivity, with a 1% increase in oil prices leading to an approximate 4.3% decline in its expected earnings for 2026; China Eastern Airlines and Air China follow closely, with sensitivities of -4.1% and -3.2%, respectively; Spring Airlines has a sensitivity of -1.5%. In comparison, China COSCO Shipping Holdings experiences an earnings impact of about -1.0% for every 1% change in oil prices, while China COSCO Shipping Energy is only -0.6%.
In terms of container shipping, the Strait of Hormuz only carries about 4% of global container trade, making the direct exposure relatively controllable. However, Maersk and CMA CGM have announced the suspension of their plans to return to the Red Sea, and the timeline for the full reopening of the Red Sea may be further delayed, which is a relatively less negative scenario for container freight rates. The blockade of the strait may also cause congestion at alternative ports, bringing upward risks to freight rates. If shipping disruptions last longer than expected, some urgent cargo may be diverted to air freight, which also has moderate upward potential for air freight rates.
<h2>Oil Price Path: In Extreme Scenarios, Brent May Reach $100</h2>
Goldman Sachs' commodity research team has provided multiple oil price scenario references regarding this conflict.
In the baseline scenario, which does not consider Iranian supply shocks, Brent crude oil is expected to average $60 per barrel in Q4 2026 and $65 per barrel in 2027.
If Iranian supply continues to decrease by about 1 million barrels per day, the Brent average price will rise to $68 per barrel and $72 per barrel, an increase of about $7 from the baseline; if sanctions are lifted and Iranian production gradually recovers, the Brent average price will decline to $56 per barrel and $60 per barrel.
In extreme scenarios, if oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz decreases by 50% within a month and then maintains a 10% decline for the following 11 months, Brent crude oil prices could peak at $100 per barrel, and then gradually decline as the risk premium dissipates.
Goldman Sachs estimates that the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for approximately 20 million barrels per day of global oil production, equivalent to about one-fifth of the world's oil production. Last year, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE collectively exported 13.3 million barrels per day through the strait, with China being the primary destination. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that existing pipeline capacity can only divert 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels per day of alternative volumes, far from enough to compensate for the supply gap caused by a complete blockade of the strait, which is also the core basis for Goldman Sachs classifying a complete blockade as a tail scenario

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Goldman Sachs analysis believes that the A-share tanker sector and COSCO SHIPPING Energy are the biggest potential beneficiaries due to rerouting, inventory replenishment, and expectations of sanctions being lifted, with daily earnings potentially increasing by $30,000 in extreme scenarios; airlines are impacted by surging fuel costs, with significant downside risks to profitability. In terms of container shipping, freight rates are supported due to rerouting through the Red Sea and port congestion. If the strait remains blocked, Brent crude oil prices may peak above $100

- The recent escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is influencing the A-share transportation sector, with oil tanker stocks expected to benefit significantly from geopolitical tensions, while airlines face profit risks due to rising fuel costs.  
- Goldman Sachs reports that if Iranian oil sanctions are lifted, shipping demand may shift to compliant fleets, boosting oil tanker earnings by approximately $30,000 per day.  
- Conversely, a 1% increase in oil prices could decrease profitability for airlines like China Southern Airlines by 4.3%, highlighting the contrasting impacts within the sector.

If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, tanker stocks may become the biggest winners, while airlines may "bleed" losses?