The European natural gas market has encountered its largest single-day shock since March 2022. QatarEnergy announced that its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility was forced to halt production due to a military attack, compounded by ongoing pressures from shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a 50% increase in European benchmark natural gas futures.
QatarEnergy confirmed in a statement that its integrated facility at Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG export base, was attacked by drones, damaging a water tank at a power plant and another energy facility, prompting the company to stop LNG production. QatarEnergy announced that LNG deliveries are affected by force majeure.
Meanwhile, the Iranian crisis continues to escalate, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz nearly at a standstill, and several tankers scheduled to load LNG in Qatar and the UAE have delayed or altered their shipping plans. An EU spokesperson stated that the EU has not taken emergency measures regarding natural gas inventories.
This shock has heightened market concerns about global energy supply disruptions. Goldman Sachs estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for a month, European natural gas prices could more than double. This situation poses significant risks for Europe, where inventories are at abnormally low levels and there is an urgent need to replenish LNG supplies during the summer.
<h2>Attack on the World's Largest LNG Export Base</h2>
As of the latest market data, European benchmark natural gas futures have risen by over 50%. Previously, the benchmark contract had fallen by 19% last month due to relatively mild weather and ample supply.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/2e485097-1f8f-4dbd-8241-b09ccadfaff8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/2e485097-1f8f-4dbd-8241-b09ccadfaff8.png"/>
QatarEnergy stated in its announcement that after the military attack on its integrated facility in Ras Laffan, the company has halted LNG production. The Qatari Ministry of Defense's statement indicated that a drone struck a water tank at a power plant within the integrated facility, and another energy facility was also attacked.
Ras Laffan is the world's largest LNG export base. Qatar had previously announced a suspension of all maritime shipping, and LNG tankers scheduled to load cargo in Qatar and the UAE are now generally delaying or re-routing their plans.
<h2>Strait of Hormuz Nearly Closed, Insurance Withdrawal Intensifies Risks</h2>
The trigger for this round of crisis was the military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran. Iran subsequently retaliated against several countries, and shipping activities in the Strait of Hormuz almost immediately came to a halt after the outbreak of conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy transport corridor, accounting for about one-fifth of global LNG exports.
Iran has stated that it has no intention of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, but vessels have effectively begun to avoid the waterway. According to Bloomberg, more than half of the world's largest marine insurance associations will stop providing war risk coverage for vessels entering the Persian Gulf starting this Thursday, a move expected to further suppress market participants' willingness to load cargoes in the Gulf
Trump stated in an interview with The New York Times that bombing operations against Iran will continue for four to five weeks.
<h2>European Inventory Crisis, Summer Restocking Faces Severe Pressure</h2>
Europe is particularly vulnerable in this shock. Although the continent is approaching the end of winter and gas consumption is slowing down, current inventory levels are exceptionally low. The region needs to import a large amount of liquefied natural gas this summer to complete restocking before the next heating season.
Tom Marzec-Manser, Director of European Gas and LNG at Wood Mackenzie, stated, &#34;The next key question for traders will be how long the Strait will remain closed,&#34; adding, &#34;The longer the closure lasts, the higher the prices will rise.&#34;
Simone Tagliapietra, an analyst at the Bruegel think tank, pointed out, &#34;This situation may complicate the gas storage restocking efforts in the coming months and create new pressures on industrial energy costs.&#34;
<h2>Middle East Supply Chain Under Pressure, Asian Competition Intensifies European Dilemma</h2>
The impact of this conflict on the Middle East energy supply chain has shown signs of multi-point spread. Israel ordered a temporary shutdown of some gas production facilities last Saturday, including the large Leviathan gas field, prompting major importer Egypt to seek to procure more spot liquefied natural gas. According to BloombergNEF analysis, the disruption of Middle Eastern gas trade may ultimately increase Turkey's demand for spot liquefied natural gas, as Turkey imports pipeline gas from Iran.
Although the main buyers of Middle Eastern liquefied natural gas are Asian countries, any supply disruption will intensify the competition for alternative sources, thereby driving up global prices, making it difficult for Europe to remain unaffected.
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst at Global Risk Management, stated, &#34;The sensitivity of the European gas market to the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz is, in fact, higher than that of the oil market. This disconnection effect will soon be reflected in the physical market.&#34;

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Qatar Energy's integrated facility located at the world's largest liquefied natural gas export base, Ras Laffan, was attacked by drones, prompting the company to halt liquefied natural gas production. Coupled with the ongoing pressure from shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, European benchmark natural gas futures surged by 50%

- Europe faces its biggest single-day impact on the natural gas market since March 2022, following a drone attack on QatarEnergy's LNG export facility, leading to a 50% surge in benchmark gas futures.  
- This incident, combined with continued shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, raises concerns over global energy supply interruptions, particularly affecting Europe with its historically low gas inventories.  
- Analysts highlight that if shipping activities remain suspended, European gas prices could more than double, complicating replenishment efforts before the winter heating season.

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Qatar Energy suspends LNG production after attack, European gas prices surge by 50%! Goldman Sachs: Prices could double if the blockade continues