A conservative economist who was once nominated by Trump to lead the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publicly warned that the U.S. economy is too fragile to withstand the shock of oil prices rising to $100 per barrel, and the war in Iran is turning this risk into reality.
On Thursday, EJ Antoni, chief economist at the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, stated in an interview with the Financial Times, &#34;I don't think this economy can handle $100 oil; it just can't.&#34; He added, &#34;The economy is weaker than we think, and inflation is more severe than we think.&#34;
These remarks came on the eve of the Federal Reserve's March meeting. Antoni also warned that the decline in energy prices in 2025 had previously suppressed overall prices, while the current reverse rise in energy prices will exert upward pressure on prices across the entire economy.
Antoni's comments coincided with a period of weakening U.S. economic data and sharply rising energy prices, leading to increasing concerns within the Republican Party about the outlook for the midterm elections. Brent crude oil rose by 5% on Wednesday, nearing $110 per barrel, while U.S. retail gasoline prices surged from $2.92 per gallon a month ago to $3.84, with diesel prices exceeding $5, placing heavy pressure on consumers and businesses.
<h2>Economic Fundamentals: Disappointing Data Continues</h2>
Antoni's warning is not unfounded, as a series of economic data had already released weak signals before the outbreak of war.
Data released last week showed that the U.S. GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2025 was significantly revised down from an initial estimate of 1.4% to 0.7%; data released on Wednesday indicated that U.S. wholesale prices in February exceeded expectations, even before military actions against Iran had commenced. Meanwhile, the U.S. saw a net loss of 92,000 jobs last month, nearly erasing all gains from January.
Antoni attributed part of the weakness in the job market to last year's federal government layoffs and emphasized that the current economy faces structural issues of &#34;weak job growth.&#34;
<h2>Political Pressure: Republican Concerns About Midterm Elections</h2>
The rapid rise in energy prices is translating into tangible political risks. According to the Financial Times, concerns within the Republican Party about high oil prices potentially dragging down midterm election prospects are growing.
At the same time, internal divisions triggered by the war in Iran are beginning to surface. Just a day before Antoni made his remarks, the director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center announced his resignation in protest, marking the first notable public departure from the Trump administration since the conflict erupted.
Antoni's public statements reflect the genuine concerns within Trump's circle of allies regarding the current economic trajectory—under the triple pressures of war, inflation, and weak growth, these worries are becoming increasingly difficult to conceal.
<h2>Nomination Controversy: From BLS Director Candidate to Withdrawal</h2>
Antoni's connection with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been quite tumultuous.
In August of last year, Trump nominated Antoni to take over this key statistical agency after firing the previous BLS director, whom he accused of &#34;manipulating&#34; the employment reports. However, just a month later, Trump suddenly withdrew his nomination of Antoni and chose government economist Brett Matsumoto instead, whose appointment is still pending Senate approval.
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Regarding how Trump was informed of the withdrawal of his nomination, Antoni refused to disclose details, stating only that he &#34;prefers to keep those conversations confidential.&#34;
Despite his exit, Antoni's critical stance towards the BLS has not softened. He compared the agency to a &#34;random number generator&#34; and called for a &#34;thorough top-down review&#34; of the entire process from data collection, data processing to data release, citing previous data leak issues—this January, Trump had announced the December employment data hours before its official release

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The conservative economist Antoni, nominated by Trump in the past, openly "sings the blues" for the U.S. economy: once oil prices break $100, this economy simply cannot hold up. GDP growth rate is halved to 0.7%, with a net job loss of 92,000, and Brent crude oil surged 5% in a single day... The war in Iran is turning the worst expectations into reality, with the dual shadows of inflation and recession looming, and the anxiety of the Republican Party regarding the midterm elections is sharply escalating

- Conservative economist EJ Antoni warns that the U.S. economy is too weak to handle oil prices rising to $100 per barrel, a risk heightened by the Iran conflict.  
- He cites disappointing economic data, such as a significant GDP growth downgrade and job losses, highlighting the structural issues within the employment market.  
- The rising energy prices are intensifying political risks for the Republican Party as concerns grow regarding their impact on the midterm elections.

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Once expected to serve as the director of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics! Trump's ally "speaks the truth": The U.S. economy cannot withstand a $100 oil price