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CN Mainland Insurance
CP20009.HK
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Morning Trend | NCI rebounds with increased volume at low levels, has the valuation repair window truly opened?

NCI (1336.HK) has recently rebounded with increased volume from a phase of low levels, and the daily MACD has completed a golden cross, indicating an initial formation of a short-term bullish pattern. The price has stabilized above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, forming a short-term moving average support zone, while the K-line structure has gently moved upward, showing an enhancement in the bullish capital control intention. Behind this round of rebound, it is resonating with multiple factors, including favorable policies for the insurance industry, regulatory encouragement for a higher proportion of insurance funds entering the market, and the overall oversold bottom of the sector. NCI's valuation has long been at a historical low, with its current price-to-book ratio and price-to-earnings ratio significantly lower than those of leading peers in the insurance industry. In terms of performance, as the decline in new business value narrows in 2023, the annual net profit is expected to achieve positive growth, with a gradually clearer trend of fundamental repair. From the market perspective, short-term funds are actively speculating around the valuation repair logic of the sector, with some institutional funds gradually increasing their positions, indicating market expectations for a "Davis Double Play" scenario. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the fact that the insurance industry as a whole is significantly affected by residents' risk preferences and capital market fluctuations. As long as the external macro sentiment remains cautious, the sector's substantial upward space still requires volume support. Technically, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed low-level support. If the trading volume remains high and stable, the short-term bulls are expected to further challenge the pressure in the range of HKD 16.4-17. If the volume weakens or short-term funds take profits and exit, a price pullback to the HKD 15.5-16 range for consolidation cannot be ruled out. In terms of operations, it is recommended that investors pay attention to fundamental catalytic news of the industry or individual stocks and changes in sector fund flows

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