Not the Federal Reserve and not tariffs, AI will become the most important macro variable in 2026
Barclays pointed out that AI directly contributes nearly 1% to the GDP growth of the United States and supports consumption through the wealth effect generated by rising technology stock valuations, becoming a dual engine of the economy. Meanwhile, most major central banks will remain on the sidelines, the impact of tariffs is weakening, and the importance of traditional macro drivers is declining. Although AI faces challenges such as valuation, financing, and power constraints, Barclays believes these concerns are exaggerated, and the AI narrative will continue to drive economic growth
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