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DWS: U.S. employment growth rebounded significantly in September, expected to hold off on rate cuts in December

DWS Chief U.S. Economist Christian Scherrmann stated that U.S. job growth rebounded significantly in September, with an addition of 119,000 positions, mainly concentrated in healthcare, food services and bars, and social assistance sectors. The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.4%, and the average hourly wage increased by 0.2%. Due to a lack of immediate data, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged in December, but it is anticipated that the policy rate will be lowered to a neutral level next year

AASTOCKS·
AASTOCKS·

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 39.6%.

According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 39.6%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 60.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative total of 25 basis points by January next year is 50.2%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 29.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 20.2%.

CoinLive·
CoinLive·

White House’s Hassett says government shutdown impact means Fed should cut rates in December

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, suggests that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates in December due to the economic impact of the government shutdown, despite a strong jobs report for September.

MSN·
MSN·

Cutting Rates to Support Labor Market Risks Extending Period of Already-High Inflation, Cleveland Fed's Hammack Says

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warns that cutting interest rates to support a weakening labor market may extend high inflation and encourage risky financial behavior. With inflation above the Fed's 2% target for 4.5 years, Hammack suggests maintaining a restrictive policy stance. The probability of a rate cut next month increased to 40%. Fed Governor Michael Barr emphasizes caution with interest rates, as inflation remains above target. The Fed's October meeting minutes reveal differing views on future rate decisions.

fidelity·
fidelity·

Powell Set For A 'Dovish Hold' In December, Economists Say After Jobs Data

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to maintain interest rates at the year's final Federal Reserve meeting, with a potential dovish tone due to mixed labor market signals. September's employment data showed a rise in unemployment to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, despite a payroll increase. Economists suggest a 'dovish hold' is likely, with divided views within the FOMC. Market odds for a December rate cut have increased, with Treasury yields easing slightly.

fidelity·
fidelity·
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