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Crossmark Global Investments CEO and CIO Bob Doll discusses the odds of a December rate cut by the Fed and how the market is navigating fears of A.I. on ‘Maria Bartiromo’s Wall Street.’

Odds of a December rate cut low because of ‘legitimate concerns’: Bob Doll

The Federal Reserve is currently divided over whether to cut interest rates in December. Typically, the policy committee reaches a consensus with minimal dissent, but the current situation is unusual. A potential outcome of the vote could lead to an ironic result, highlighting the division within the Fed.

The funniest possible outcome of the December Fed meeting

Federal Reserve official Logan stated that he expects the Fed's balance sheet to resume growth soon, and the Fed will need to offset the tailwinds from financial conditions. Maintaining interest rates will allow the Fed to assess the tightening situation. (Jinshi)

CoinLive

Federal Reserve's Logan: Expects the Fed's balance sheet to resume growth soon.

Fed Chair Powell's recent comments have led to a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations, negatively impacting the stock market. The Fed faces a challenge in balancing rate cuts to avoid a recession. The December meeting may signal a dovish hold with increased projected rate cuts in 2026, potentially limiting downside risk and leading to a market rebound.

Investinglive

Dovish hold, or hawkish cut: that is the question

DWS Chief U.S. Economist Christian Scherrmann stated that U.S. job growth rebounded significantly in September, with an addition of 119,000 positions, mainly concentrated in healthcare, food services and bars, and social assistance sectors. The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.4%, and the average hourly wage increased by 0.2%. Due to a lack of immediate data, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged in December, but it is anticipated that the policy rate will be lowered to a neutral level next year

AASTOCKS

DWS: U.S. employment growth rebounded significantly in September, expected to hold off on rate cuts in December

According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 39.6%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 60.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative total of 25 basis points by January next year is 50.2%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 29.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 20.2%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 39.6%.

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, suggests that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates in December due to the economic impact of the government shutdown, despite a strong jobs report for September.

White House’s Hassett says government shutdown impact means Fed should cut rates in December

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warns that cutting interest rates to support a weakening labor market may extend high inflation and encourage risky financial behavior. With inflation above the Fed's 2% target for 4.5 years, Hammack suggests maintaining a restrictive policy stance. The probability of a rate cut next month increased to 40%. Fed Governor Michael Barr emphasizes caution with interest rates, as inflation remains above target. The Fed's October meeting minutes reveal differing views on future rate decisions.

- Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that easing monetary policy to support a weakening labor market could prolong high inflation, which has exceeded the Fed's 2% target for 4.5 years.  
- Despite the US economy adding 119,000 nonfarm jobs in September, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, prompting concerns about financial stability and risky lending practices.  
- Hammack emphasized the need for a somewhat restrictive policy stance to effectively reduce inflation, as differing views among policymakers highlight the challenges ahead for the Federal Reserve.  