Trump's first year back in the presidency: SPY, Bitcoin, QQQ index scorecard
Stock market and cryptocurrency returns in Trump's first year of his second term
Trump promised that when he takes office as president on January 20, 2025, "America's golden age" will begin.
During his return to the presidency, stock market indices hit record highs in 2025, and the market continued to rise a year after his inauguration.
Below are the starting price, current price, and yield of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US), Invesco QQQ Trust $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US), and SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust $SPDR Djia(DIA.US), which track the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, respectively.
The starting price is the closing price on January 17, 2025, and the current price is based on the closing price on January 16, 2026, as the market was closed on January 20, 2025.
SPY: Opening price $597.58, current price $691.66, up 15.7%
QQQ: Starting price $521.74, current price $621.06, up 19.0%
DIA: Starting price $434.72, current price $493.42, up 13.5%
The biggest winner in the first year of Trump's second term was the Nasdaq 100, which rose 19%. Meanwhile, all seven "Magnificent Seven" stocks posted positive returns in 2025, with Alphabet Inc $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) leading the way with a gain of 65.2%.
Ranking second was the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which rose 15.7%.
Although a large portion of the 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted positive returns in 2025, the index still ranked third. Twenty-three of these 30 stocks rose in 2025, up from 18 in 2024 and 19 in 2023.
In addition to pledging to advance an "America First" agenda and usher in a golden age, Trump is also seen as a cryptocurrency president, with the prices of major cryptocurrencies rising after he won the 2024 election.
Below is an analysis of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trading during the first year of Trump's second term, based on the opening price on January 20, 2025, and the price at 9:30 a.m. ET on January 20, 2026.
Bitcoin: Starting price $101,083.75, current price $90,888.04, down 10.1%
Since Trump took office, Bitcoin has fallen 10%, underperforming major stock indices. Given Trump's pro-cryptocurrency stance and his calls for a Bitcoin strategic reserve and other cryptocurrency-related legislation, this result may come as a surprise to investors.
What is the future direction of the stock market and cryptocurrencies?
In the first four years of Trump's first presidential term, the S&P 500 rose about 70%. To achieve similar returns, the market would need to continue to rise over the next three years. Below are the annual returns of the SPY index during Trump's first presidential term:
2017: +21.7%
2018: -4.6%
2019: +31.2%
2020: +18.4%
SPY's 16.6% gain in 2025 was the second-lowest yield for most of Trump's presidency.
Investors should note that the second year of Trump's first term and the second year of President Biden's term (2022: -18.2%) both saw negative returns and were the worst performances of their respective four-year terms. In 2018, the market fell due to tariff uncertainty, tech stock valuation concerns, and other factors. In 2022, the market plunged again amid the lingering effects of the pandemic, soaring inflation, and rising interest rates.
In 2025, Trump often cited stock market returns and record valuations as indicators of economic health. But voters did not agree with his views, as they were suffering from inflation and rising food and health care costs.
After the strong performance of the stock market in 2025, investors and analysts hope to see more strong returns in 2026. But the downward trend in the second year of Trump's and Biden's presidencies in recent years may signal the need for caution.
Uncertainty over tariffs, interest rates and geopolitical tensions could lead to a market correction in 2026.
For cryptocurrencies, reduced volatility and record events in the stock market could ultimately be good news. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may rise in times of political uncertainty and geopolitical tension.
Although Bitcoin fell 10% in the first year of Trump's second term, the leading cryptocurrency has hit record highs multiple times since the president's re-election and during his first term.$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)$NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$S&P 500(.SPX.US)
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