Recently released key economic data - whether it's the cooling PCE, slowing consumer spending, declining PMI or slowing non-farm payrolls - are seen by Dolphin Research as "just the right intensity" of economic slowdown expectations.

For example, while overall PCE is slowing, the core is slowing at a more moderate pace. Consumer spending has slowed, but this is more due to a rebound in savings rates rather than a slowdown in income at the source. The PMI has weakened, mainly due to declines in components like prices.

Even last Friday's most critical non-farm payroll data shows that considering current employment supply and demand has approached pre-pandemic levels, the 210,000 new jobs added in June are actually not low. It's just that after adjustments, the unemployment rate has risen somewhat.

With elections in full swing, all recent economic data "just perfectly" points to a soft landing rather than a recession. Under soft landing expectations, the economy is indeed slowing, so the Dow Jones Industrial Average, representing traditional economy, shows minimal gains. Meanwhile, the interest-rate-sensitive Nasdaq Composite Index, representing growth stocks, has rallied on rate-cut expectations and valuation benefits. As the U.S. economy weakens, China's marginal economic recovery momentum driven by external demand stories is also weakening. In this context, Chinese assets that are similarly sensitive to dollar rate-cut stories have shown minimal gains.

This year's "Magnificent Seven" have essentially seen internal rotation - from Google's undervaluation rebound early in the year, to Apple's valuation recovery, to Tesla's recent surge, accompanied by periodic rallies in Meta and Amazon, along with Nvidia's continuous gains. The early-year market essentially presented opportunities wherever the Magnificent Seven stocks declined.