Trump was shot at a campaign rally, which clearly shows the intense conflict between the two parties now.

Compared to Biden's policy proposals, Trump emphasizes tariffs, immigration restrictions, and tax-cut fiscal easing (as the reshoring of manufacturing for infrastructure and semiconductors is a bipartisan consensus already enacted into law). Therefore, if Trump is elected, long-term U.S. Treasury yields may stay elevated for a longer time, and the strong dollar may persist longer as well.

In contrast, Biden's Democratic Party advocates more direct industrial stimulus policies while increasing taxes on the wealthy and large corporations. The major elections in key countries this year will significantly impact the economy over the next year. Given the extreme polarization between the two parties in this election, unexpected events are more likely, requiring continuous attention.

Below are the major macroeconomic events for the rest of this year. Those interested should pay close attention.