Yesterday, as soon as $ASML(ASML.US) released its earnings, it felt like the AI sector was due for a pullback, and sure enough, that's exactly what happened.

First, despite the rotation among the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, AI stocks didn't fall much despite their high valuations, as investors were hoping for better-than-expected earnings from AI leaders, or at least more marginally optimistic guidance;

Second, foreign media reported that the Trump administration is considering further semiconductor export controls targeting China, specifically requiring allies and their companies to halt exports to Chinese firms if their products contain even a trace of U.S. technology, with the measures directly targeting Japan's Tokyo Electron and the Netherlands' ASML;

Finally, Trump's recent media interviews revealed a businessman's mindset of charging "protection fees" in foreign policy, along with protectionist tendencies over the loss of U.S. domestic chip manufacturing capacity to Taiwan, China, raising concerns about potential impacts on TSMC.

Arguably, these developments might not have been particularly severe negatives if AI stock valuations were normal, but amid high valuations and a barrage of negative news, the earnings themselves became critically important.

However, ASML's earnings last night fell short of expectations for the short term (next quarter's guidance). While the longer-term guidance (2025) expressed optimism about AI, it essentially offered no significant new positive information compared to last quarter. Overall, the results were a clear negative for the semiconductor industry: current earnings beat expectations, short-term guidance disappointed, and long-term guidance lacked incremental optimism.