This quarter's performance of $Apple(AAPL.US) might be relatively mediocre. In the latest quarterly earnings report, the revenue contribution from smartphone customers at TSMC accelerated its decline to just over 30%, while the revenue share from the mainland region increased. This implies that Apple's performance isn't particularly strong. This might also be one of the reasons why Ming-Chi Kuo stated that "the iPhone 16 order numbers haven't shown significant changes," countering the earlier supply chain rumors suggesting Apple had raised its order target for the iPhone 16 to over 90 million units.

There are indeed some doubts at the moment: before AI features are fully implemented, how many people would preemptively buy "hardware with pre-installed AI," and how much of a replacement wave this AI smartphone can trigger. From the statements of its supply chain partner TSMC: "We haven't seen a sudden surge in sales yet, but we expect AI features to stimulate demand and shorten replacement cycles. Significant growth in smartphone and PC sales is expected in about two years."

The implied message here seems to suggest that AI smartphones will drive a new replacement wave, but the momentum won't be immediate—it will take some time.