$Tesla(TSLA.US)'s "AI story", is it really as promising as investors are concerned?

A survey shows that 68% of investors see AI as the main driver of Tesla's stock price in the coming year, while only 33% lean towards electric vehicles.

Tesla's recent stock price rally began after Musk's compensation package was approved. Before that, when Musk actively distanced Tesla from AI and the company was valued solely on its increasingly competitive auto business, its stock price once fell below $150. In other words, the rebound from $150 to $250 was largely driven by its electric vehicle business.

From the perspective of Tesla's current performance, the revenue contributed by FSD is almost negligible compared to its massive hardware revenue. In other words, 68% of people believe that Tesla will make little progress in its electric vehicle business in the coming year, leaving the stock's upside potential dependent on AI—a segment with almost no current revenue but full of future fantasies.

Dolphin Research still maintains its previous view: when Tesla's valuation approaches $300 and its market cap nears $1 trillion, it has already priced in too much AI valuation that hasn't materialized in the near term, increasing risks instead. When AI hasn't truly delivered, an excessively high AI valuation becomes a risk.