PLTR Holding Strategy 26 Outlook

With PLTR's market capitalization stabilizing at 400 billion and its average daily trading volume consistently ranking in the top 10 (occasionally top 5) of U.S. stocks, and institutional holdings exceeding 60%, it is no longer a small-cap stock, and its volatility has also decreased significantly compared to before.

Looking back at the trend over the past 25 years, from 60 at the beginning of the year to 200 at the end of the year and stabilizing at 180, this 3x return was accompanied by rapid expansion after the market capitalization broke through 100 billion. With the market cap reaching 400 billion, it is almost impossible to achieve another 3x return in 2026, but based on the trend of 2025, I believe there is still an opportunity to earn Alpha returns in 2026.

Excluding the tariff turmoil in April, PLTR experienced three major pullbacks in 2025. Let’s review what happened in each case.

First: 120->80. After the better-than-expected earnings report in February, the stock price surged to 120, but then rumors emerged that the Department of Defense would cut military spending, and PLTR was the first to be hit, dropping to a low of 80. Long-term PLTR investors may still remember that the Department of Defense later debunked the rumors, and Trump passed the "Big Beautiful Bill," leading to a surge in military budgets. PLTR also rebounded to around 100. However, it later experienced the April tariffs, dropping to a low of 60, which was a market-wide factor and not worth discussing here.

Second: 180->130. The Q2 earnings report released in August continued to exceed expectations, pushing the stock price to 180, but then Citron Research shorted the stock, leading to intense long-short battles that briefly drove the price down to 140. Later, the options chain showed that short positions were gradually closing, and the stock price stabilized at 150 before rebounding to 170.

Third: 210->150. The Q3 earnings report released in November also exceeded expectations, pushing the stock price to 200. What followed is likely still fresh in everyone’s memory, as it involved NVDA. The prominent short-seller Burry publicly shorted AI, and PLTR and NVDA were the first to be hit, with negative news flooding the market. AI stocks generally experienced a pullback, and PLTR also dropped to 150. However, Burry’s short position was reportedly exaggerated, and after gaining enough attention, Burry started a column to earn subscription fees, and PLTR’s stock price also rebounded.

It’s clear that PLTR’s performance is very solid, and its fundamentals are also stable. The three major drops were all caused by malicious short-selling, and short-sellers combined with media attacks can create huge market sentiment in the short term. The commonality is that the short-term sell-offs are very rapid, and while the rebounds aren’t as fast, they can still reverse the trend in a short time. Moreover, the timing of short-sellers exiting is traceable, as PLTR’s options trading is very active, and observing the options chain can help with judgment.

Therefore, my strategy for holding PLTR is to remain bullish on its long-term potential to reach a trillion-dollar market cap (corresponding to a stock price of 400), but this will require leveraging Vance’s influence, which may happen during the next election cycle. For 2026, I’m optimistic about the market cap rising to 6000-7000 billion, corresponding to a stock price of 250-280, which would be a 50-65% return—much lower than the 3x gain in 2025. However, PLTR’s journey has never been smooth, and I believe there will still be one, two, or even three short-seller attacks in 2026, which will present opportunities to earn Alpha returns. I’m looking forward to short-sellers giving us a chance to buy at 120-150.

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)