HS-SMIC@EC2610A

SMIC States Its Memory and BCD Products Are in Short Supply and Prices Are Rising

With fourth-quarter revenue approaching 20 billion, SMIC is betting on a decade of domestic substitution dividends

JPMorgan: SMIC's Q4 Gross Margin Missed Expectations, Maintains "Underweight" Rating

Guosen Securities Maintains "Outperform" Rating for SMIC

DBS Analyst Maintains Buy Rating for Semiconductor Manufacturing International

Morgan Stanley Maintains "Overweight" Rating on SMIC, Citing Benefits from China's AI Computing Power Construction

UBS Raises Revenue Forecast for SMIC But Maintains Neutral Rating

US chipmaker Applied Materials fined $252 million for illegal sales to China's SMIC

CLSA cuts SMIC earnings forecast but maintains 'outperform' rating

CLSA Raises SMIC Target Price and Provides Revenue Guidance

Applied Materials to Pay $252 Million Fine for Illegal Export

Northbound funds saw a net inflow of 4.816 billion, while SMIC was sold off post-earnings

SMIC's Zhao Haijun States HBM Shortage Will Continue

SMIC Warns Hastily Built AI Capacity May Face Risk of Idleness in the Future

SMIC Reveals Plans to Continue Production Expansion at Earnings Call

SMIC Warns of Soaring Depreciation Costs from Continued Expansion, Pressuring Gross Margin

Southbound capital recorded a net sell of HK$391 million in SMIC shares

SMIC CEO states that the effect of localizing the industrial chain will continue into 2026

SMIC adjusts capacity allocation to 应对存储超级周期

SMIC's Hong Kong Shares Fall Nearly 5% as Q4 Profit Misses Expectations

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Applied Materialsshares fell 1.4% to $335.08 premarket after a $252 million settlement with the U.S. Commerce Department for illegal exports to China. The company made 56 unauthorized shipments of chipmaking equipment to SMIC in 2021 and 2022. Analysts expect a 4% revenue decline in Q1 to $6.87 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.20. Despite a 32% YTD increase, the stock's valuation may be high at 33 times expected earnings compared to its five-year average of 19.

- Applied Materials (AMAT.O) shares fell by 1.4% to $335.08 after agreeing to a $252 million settlement for illegal equipment exports to China.  
- The U.S. Commerce Department identified 56 illegal shipments of chipmaking equipment to China's SMIC, totaling $126 million, without the necessary export licenses.  
- Analysts expect a 4% year-over-year revenue decline to $6.87 billion for AMAT's fiscal Q1 results, with a buy rating from Wall Street and shares near their record high, suggesting potential overvaluation at 33 times expected earnings.

Reuters

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Applied Materials

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SMIC

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VanEck Semiconductor ETF

BUZZ-Applied Materials shares dip after China export settlement

DBS analyst Jim Hin Kwong Au has maintained a Buy rating on Semiconductor Manufacturing International (0981) with a price target of HK$87.40. He is a 5-star analyst with a 21.5% average return and a 64.08% success rate. The current analyst consensus for the company is a Moderate Buy, with an average price target of HK$85.40.

- Jim Hin Kwong Au from DBS has maintained a Buy rating on Semiconductor Manufacturing International, setting a price target of HK$87.40.  
- Hin Kwong Au is a 5-star analyst with a 21.5% average return and a 64.08% success rate, focusing on the Technology sector.  
- The current analyst consensus on Semiconductor Manufacturing International is a Moderate Buy, with an average price target of HK$85.40.

Tip Ranks

DBS Remains a Buy on Semiconductor Manufacturing International (0981)

SOXL

Nomura's research report indicates that SMIC is expected to meet its wafer revenue and gross margin expectations in the fourth quarter of 2025, with revenue in the first quarter of 2026 remaining flat and gross margin between 18% and 20%. Management expects that the full-year revenue growth in 2026 will exceed the industry average, with actual growth in the mid to high double digits. The company will benefit from the domestic semiconductor localization trend and strong demand driven by AI, maintaining a "Neutral" rating and a target price of 75 yuan

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Nomura expects SMIC's revenue to grow in the mid to high double digits this year, maintaining a "Neutral" rating

JP Morgan released a report stating that SMIC's gross margin in the fourth quarter of last year was lower than expected, mainly due to rising depreciation. It is expected that revenue will grow by 15% in 2026, but due to massive capital expenditures in the 2025/26 fiscal year, depreciation costs will rise by 30%, and gross margins will continue to be under pressure. At the same time, weak demand for smartphones, personal computers, and consumer electronics makes it difficult for average prices to rise significantly, therefore maintaining a "reduce" rating with a target price of 57 yuan

"Big Banks" JP Morgan: SMIC's gross margin last quarter was below expectations, maintaining a "Underweight" rating

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SMIC Co-CEO Zhao Haijun revealed that the business in Q4 2025 is showing a "non-weak off-season" characteristic, with 12-inch capacity nearing full load. He pointed out that the strong demand for AI in storage has "squeezed" the mid-to-low-end markets such as mobile phones, leading to order differentiation, but high-end application orders have significantly increased. As a result, the company's capital expenditure in 2025 is expected to reach USD 8.1 billion, exceeding expectations, and plans to maintain a similar level of investment in 2026 to cope with the growth of mid-to-high-end and AI-related orders

- Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC reported a fourth-quarter sales revenue of $2.489 billion, a 4.5% quarter-on-quarter growth, and a capacity utilization rate of 95.7%.  
- CEO Zhao Haijun highlighted AI demand’s impact on the semiconductor supply chain, causing a squeeze on traditional markets, particularly in mid to low-end applications.  
- In response to strong market demand and an evolving order structure, SMIC’s capital expenditure for 2025 reached $8.1 billion, with similar investments planned for 2026 to maintain growth.

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SMIC conference call: "12-inch wafers are nearing full capacity," AI drives up storage demand squeezing orders for mobile phones and others, with capital expenditure remaining at a high level of $8.1 billion this year

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On February 11th, the three major indices of the Hong Kong stock market rose slightly during the session, with the Hang Seng Technology Index leading the gains at 0.74%, showing a narrow range of fluctuations overall. In terms of sectors, the hardware and storage sectors performed strongly, with Xiaomi Group surging 4.38% driven by expectations of AI and new products; the internet sector showed divergence, with Bilibili rising 5.41% and Tencent Holdings falling 1.09%. In terms of individual stocks, Synagistics and Ridge Outdoor soared over 35% due to positive news. The current market is in a macro data vacuum period, with investor sentiment primarily cautious

- On February 11, Hong Kong's stock indices showed a slight overall rise, with investor sentiment remaining cautious amid a lack of macroeconomic data.  
- The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.25%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index led gains at 0.74%, although major indices stayed below recent highs.  
- Market focus shifted towards upcoming retail sales and trade data, as well as inflation and unemployment metrics, which are crucial for assessing economic resilience.

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Hong Kong stock market intraday | Hang Seng TECH Index up 0.74%, hardware sector strengthens, Xiaomi surges 4.38%, Tencent down 1.09%

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The short selling amount in the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 16.09 billion in the half-day session, accounting for 16.5% of the total shortable stock turnover of HKD 97.79 billion. The previous day was 17.1%. The main shorted stocks include: Southern Hang Seng Technology with a short selling ratio of 54.9% and a short selling amount of HKD 1.33 billion; Xiaomi Group-W with a short selling ratio of 13.1% and a short selling amount of HKD 660 million; Alibaba-W with a short selling ratio of 16.5% and a short selling amount of HKD 650 million; SMIC with a short selling ratio of 14.5% and a short selling amount of HKD 580 million; Tencent Holdings with a short selling ratio of 7.2% and a short selling amount of HKD 520 million

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The short selling in the Hong Kong stock market for half a day was HKD 16.09 billion, accounting for 16.5% of the total turnover of shortable stocks

SMIC Co-CEO Zhao Haijun stated at the earnings conference that AI demand cannot be met for a certain period, and the shortage of HBM will continue for several years. The industry is heavily investing in storage technology, and future HBM capacity will be limited by the backend testing phase, rather than the frontend wafer production

SMIC Zhao Haijun: HBM shortages will continue

SMIC Co-CEO Zhao Haijun stated at the earnings conference that the monthly capacity increase this year is expected to be equivalent to approximately 40,000 12-inch wafers. The company plans to add about 50,000 12-inch capacity by 2025 and continue to expand production in 2026. Due to external environmental impacts, the company has purchased some key equipment in advance, but the supporting equipment has not yet arrived, which may prevent the formation of complete production capacity. The company will respond to high depreciation pressure by increasing utilization and reducing costs and improving efficiency, with total depreciation expected to increase by approximately 30% year-on-year in 2026

SMIC's Zhao Haijun: It is expected that the monthly capacity increase this year will be equivalent to approximately 40,000 12-inch wafers

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The three major A-share indices showed mixed performance in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.07%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.9%. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was adjusted to 6.9438, reaching a nearly five-month high. The People's Bank of China conducted reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 403.5 billion yuan. SMIC's stock price fell by 1.3%, while BYD rose by 1.8%

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Guotai CES Semiconductor Chip Industry ETF

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The three major A-share indices of Shanghai and Shenzhen showed mixed performance in the first half of the day, with SMIC declining after earnings and BYD favored

Conference Minutes

Below is Dolphin Research's curated Trans of SMIC's Q4 2025 earnings call. For our analysis, see 'SMIC: Doubling Down Against the Cycle — Are domestic AI chips the 'hope of the whole village'?' 1) 2026 outlook: Full-year revenue growth is set to outpace the peer avg. CAPEX in 2026 is expected to be roughly flat vs. 2025 ($8.1bn), while depreciation will rise materially, up approx. 30%.2) Industry backdrop: The market is showing clear bifurcation. On one hand...

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United Microelectronics

SMIC (Trans): Street Too Bearish on Smartphones; Memory Shortage to Ease in Q3

SMIC 4Q25- revenue up 4% q/q and 13% y/y to $2.489B; 9thstraight quarter of y/y growth; 19.2% GM due depreciation load; 96% utilization rate; QMar revenue to be flat- 1.1M wafer shipments at $2.4k ASP- $8.1B capex in ’25 vs $7.3B in ’24- 2026 capex to remain same; SMIC forecasts its ’26 rev to outgrow the segments it participatesSource: Sravan Kundojjala

Financial Analysis

SMIC (0981.HK/688981.SH) released its Q4 2025 results (quarter ended Dec 2025) after the HK close on Feb 10, 2026 (Beijing time). Key takeaways: 1) Headline results: revenue of $2.49bn, in line with consensus ($2.42bn), up 4.5% QoQ and above guidance (0–2% QoQ). QoQ revenue growth was driven mainly by restocking demand in consumer electronics ...

SMIC: Doubling Down in a Downcycle — The Last Hope for Homegrown AI Chips?

Wow! You have an extraordinary 90% rate!

The market is very choppy, more options will be good as implied volatility is high!

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SMIC 4Q25 First Take: headline was mixed — revenue met expectations, but GPM underwhelmed. On the margin bridge, ASP rose by $37/wafer QoQ while unit cost increased by $56/wafer, driving GPM compression. While the company has pushed advanced nodes to a 7nm‑equivalent, lower yield continues to weigh on margins. Guidance matters more than the print, and the outlook remains muted. Management guides flat QoQ revenue vs. the Street at +3%, and GPM at 18–20% vs. the Street at 21%, implying continued margin pressure. Despite AI semis staying hot, results remain soft, largely due to a sluggish traditional semi market. Management is still cautious on the legacy demand recovery. Given SMIC’s unique positioning, valuation is not fully tethered to near‑term fundamentals. The company sits in the foundry industry’s second tier but is working to close the gap with TSMC, which keeps optionality and expectations alive. For more, follow Dolphin Research for subsequent commentary and Trans. $SMIC(00981.HK) $SMIC(688981.SH)

Taiwan Semiconductor

This week is much stronger overall than last week, but don't blindly chase highs.

股市江湖故事会

As much as I want to be bullish and hope stocks keep going up, I feel that the topping process is going on and a pullback is imminent. Stay safe!

Is betting on a Moon city smarter than funding the AI arms race? Explore key moves from Google, SpaceX, and Tesla, plus a major pharma lawsuit. Comment your view to earn task coins!

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🔥 Market Buzz: The AI Spending Race & Musk's Moon Shot | Tue, Feb 10, 2026

I was amazed by the 100-year bond. I know this is not the first time since 1990s. Many people may not see the long-term risks, such as the business will remain relevant far into the future. While the risk may seem low, technological disruption or obsolescence over such a long horizon can never be ruled out.

Because the AI bubble is too big now, and the stock index has exceeded expectations.

All the AI companies are getting downgraded! Even for the big tech, this is a warning sign of what's to come!

Taking debt to fund the AI spending spree sounds alot like the dot com bubble!

Recently, many people have been following Elon's SPX.

SpaceX's moon city? Sounds meh than Mars colonisation..

HS-SMIC@EC2610A(19144.HK)

BUZZ-Applied Materials shares dip after China export settlement

DBS Remains a Buy on Semiconductor Manufacturing International (0981)

Nomura expects SMIC's revenue to grow in the mid to high double digits this year, maintaining a "Neutral" rating

"Big Banks" JP Morgan: SMIC's gross margin last quarter was below expectations, maintaining a "Underweight" rating

SMIC conference call: "12-inch wafers are nearing full capacity," AI drives up storage demand squeezing orders for mobile phones and others, with capital expenditure remaining at a high level of $8.1 billion this year