The Cost of Prosperity: The Dual Narrative of Global Finance
In 2026, global fiscal policy will shift to pro-cyclical expansion, emphasizing supply-side investment and defense spending. The fiscal policies of the US, Europe, and Japan will synchronously transition from counter-cyclical to cross-cyclical, with debt risk transforming into liquidity risk, and fiscal expansion becoming a consensus. It is expected that the deficit rates of Japan, the United States, and Germany will significantly increase, the proportion of public sector employment will rise, and monetary independence will be eroded