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Spot gold reached a record high of $4,629.94/oz on January 12, with analysts predicting it could surpass $5,000/oz in 2026 due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and monetary policy easing. Silver also hit a record high of $86.22/oz. Central bank buying and strong ETF inflows contributed to this momentum, with China's central bank continuing its gold purchases. Analysts expect silver prices to rise significantly, potentially reaching between $58 and $88/oz this year, despite warnings of a possible market correction later on.
Commodity ETFs experienced a significant resurgence in 2025, with total inflows reaching $58 billion, a sharp increase from $1.3 billion the previous year. Gold was the primary driver, attracting approximately $48.5 billion, as investors sought diversification amid macroeconomic risks. Notable inflows were seen in SPDR Gold Shares and iShares Gold Trust. Silver ETFs also gained traction, with inflows of $3.4 billion and $1.2 billion respectively. This trend indicates a shift towards real assets and inflation hedges in investor portfolios, raising questions about the future of commodity investments in 2026.
The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw its holdings decrease by 1.43 tons from the previous day, currently holding 1070.56 tons. The world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, saw its holdings decrease by 11.28 tons from the previous day, currently holding 16444.14 tons. (Jinshi)
Retail investors have had a remarkable year in 2025, capitalizing on market dips and achieving strong returns as the market reached all-time highs. This new breed of investors, often underestimated, has outperformed traditional professionals by buying into the market during downturns. Notably, they shifted focus from single stocks to ETFs, particularly the SPDR Gold Shares, which saw record inflows. Their strategies, including the "TACO trade," have proven effective, leading to higher profit ratios compared to institutional investors. Overall, retail investors have demonstrated increased market savvy and resilience this year.
U.S.-listed ETFs experienced a rare outflow of $569 million during the holiday-shortened week ending December 26, despite year-to-date inflows exceeding $1.4 trillion. U.S. equity ETFs led the outflows with $25.9 billion, while international equity and fixed income ETFs saw inflows of $10.1 billion and $8.8 billion, respectively. Notably, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) attracted $2.6 billion, reflecting strong demand for precious metals. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) also saw significant inflows, while the State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPYM) led outflows with $6.4 billion.
