UnionSteel(ZB9.SG)

Is a recession still needed before commodities reach a "super bull market"?

The rapid rise in the commodity market has sparked imaginations of a super cycle in commodities, but Guolian Minsheng Securities points out that a true commodity bull market typically begins at the economic trough, not during a boom. Historical data shows that commodity bull markets last an average of 12 years, with the starting point often corresponding to a recovery after an economic crisis. The current rise resembles a precious metals market and has not yet entered a phase of comprehensive resonance expansion

Domestic and international commodity futures fell, with precious metals leading the decline

Domestic and international commodity futures generally declined, with precious metals leading the drop. The main contracts for domestic lithium carbonate and polysilicon fell by more than 6%, while platinum and palladium contracts saw declines of up to 9% and 7%, respectively. Shanghai silver and Shanghai gold also dropped by more than 2%. LME copper prices fell by over 1.5%, and both WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreased by about 1%. Market risk warning, investment should be cautious

JIANGXI COPPER (358.HK): Following commodity trends, bulls are making efforts, but short pressure needs to be monitored

Jiangxi Copper has recently performed well, rising in tandem with international copper prices and continuously attracting attention from market funds. During the trading session, the stock price once approached a new high for the period, with the significant bull market effect in international commodities and expectations for infrastructure in Europe and the United States driving industry valuation recovery. It is noteworthy that the company has not announced any new major announcements, but the influx of funds is evident, indicating strong trend trading behavior within the sector. On the trading floor, short-term bulls are actively entering the market, and trading volume is rapidly increasing. Major indicators during this period remain in a bullish arrangement, and the trading atmosphere is relatively positive. Nevertheless, signs of overheating are gradually accumulating, and by the close, relevant technical overbought indicators have reached high levels, leading many traders to become cautious, with some funds choosing to take profits after the price increase, resulting in greater divergence in the closing session and intensified market fluctuations. The mainstream view in the market suggests that the copper sector's future volatility may be more influenced by overseas macroeconomic conditions and changes in copper prices. If there is a divergence in price and volume or adverse external news impacts, correction pressure may arise at any time. However, if it coincides with industrial policies or a new wave of global infrastructure catalysis, the bullish main line is still expected to gather quickly. It is not advisable to chase high prices at this time; instead, focus on tracking changes in trading volume and overseas market events. In summary, the rising divergence among major players and the risk of overbought corrections coexist in the short term, while external catalysts or large fund behaviors remain the barometer

Breakfast | The three major indices showed mixed results, Microsoft’s AI spending sparked concerns, and its stock price plummeted by 10%

The three major indices showed mixed results, with Microsoft's AI spending sparking concerns, causing its stock price to plummet by 10%, marking the largest single-day drop since 2020; Bitcoin fell by 6%, and Ethereum dropped over 7%, falling below $2800

The increase in London copper has expanded to 10%, currently reported at USD 14,410.5 per ton, continuing to set a new historical high