BP#HSI RP2812C

Hong Kong Stock Market Stamp Duty Boosts Government Revenue, 2026 Budget Forecast Shows Little Increase

Government Announces Budget Forecasting Surplus from 2026/27 Fiscal Year Onwards

Hong Kong Increases Stamp Duty on Residential Properties Over HKD 100 Million

Financial Secretary Paul Chan's Budget Speech Predicts HK Economic Growth

Hang Seng Index Futures Closed on February 25th

HSI Futures, HKC Futures, and H shares Index Futures Open Lower than Spot Prices

LJ Group Analyzes Hong Kong Private Housing Construction and Completion

HANG SENG Index Bull and Bear Warrant Ratio and Quantity Updates

Hang Seng Index Futures Night Session Down 0.75%

HSI Night Index Futures Quotation Up 43 Points

Futures Open Higher Than Spot Prices

Hang Seng Index Futures Open 1.52% Higher at 26,787.44

Significant Rise in Singapore Black Index and Overnight Futures

Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Assessment and Outlook of Hong Kong's Economy

Hang Seng Index Night Futures (February) Up 38 Points

HSI Futures Midday Decline Expands to 1%

Hong Kong Futures Open Up 0.05% at 26820 Points

HSI Ends Two-Day Losing Streak, Rises by Nearly 140 Points

HSI Futures Night Session Closed Up 1.04% at 26,778.91

HKMA Injects HKD 4.73 Billion in Liquidity

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Government sources revealed that the government's operating and consolidated accounts for the fiscal year 2025/26 will return to surplus ahead of schedule, benefiting from a booming stock market and higher-than-expected revenues from stamp duty and profits tax. Government department spending has decreased, increasing the surplus by HKD 10 billion to 20 billion. In the coming years, Hong Kong's annual bond issuance will increase to HKD 160 billion to 220 billion, while government debt as a percentage of GDP will remain below 20%, maintaining a robust level

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News: The government's accounts for the 2025/26 fiscal year are expected to turn a profit ahead of schedule, with the debt ratio remaining very robust

The Tourism Board plans to launch a brand new light and shadow parade performance to replace the "A Symphony of Lights" held since 2004, expected to conclude as early as this year. The new performance will utilize a funding of HKD 1.66 billion, aiming to expand the scale and promotion of the event to attract more tourists. The performance locations will be chosen around commercial activities to ensure benefits for nearby businesses while considering the impact on residents. The new performance will focus on promoting to cities outside Guangdong Province and emerging markets such as ASEAN and the Middle East

News: "A Symphony of Lights" may end this year, and the Hong Kong Tourism Board will launch a brand new light and shadow parade performance

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According to a survey by the Census and Statistics Department, the unemployment rate for youths aged 15 to 39 in the fourth quarter of last year was 4.8%, with 61,200 unemployed individuals. The government is concerned about youth employment, and the number of participants in the "Youth Employment Program" for the 2024/2025 fiscal year has increased to 4,059, a growth of 43%. In addition, the government supports youth entrepreneurship by launching 12 experiential projects in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, benefiting approximately 300 youths, and plans to expand to other provinces and cities in the mainland, providing about 600 spots

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Sun Yuhan: In the fourth quarter of last year, the unemployment rate for youth aged 15 to 39 was 4.8%

The Secretary for Innovation, Technology and Industry, Sun Dong, stated at the Legislative Council that the "Digital Transformation Support Pilot Scheme," launched in early 2024, has granted funding to 8,799 small and medium-sized enterprises across various industries. The government is studying ways to optimize the scheme, expecting an additional allocation of HKD 300 million, and plans to launch a new proposal after consulting the Legislative Council in the second half of the year

Sun Dong: The government is researching improvements to the "Digital Transformation Support Pilot Program," which is expected to require an additional allocation of HKD 300 million, with consultations to the Legislative Council in the second half of the year

The Secretary for Administration, Chan Kwok-kee, stated in the new "Financial Budget" that the budget will strengthen support for citizens and local businesses, responding to the needs of different social strata. The budget will promote Hong Kong's integration into national development, enhance innovation and technology development, elevate its status as an international financial center, and allocate HKD 300 million to follow up on the aftermath of the Hong Fu Court fire. The government will continue to promote economic development, improve people's livelihoods, and enhance Hong Kong's core competitiveness

Chen Guoji: The "Budget" moderately strengthens support for citizens and local businesses, responding to the needs of different social strata

Hong Kong is increasing stamp duty on luxury home transactions over HK$100 million from 4.25% to 6.5%, as announced by Financial Secretary Paul Chan. This change, expected to generate HK$1 billion annually, will impact about 0.3% of residential deals and requires Legislative Council approval. The luxury market has seen a surge in activity, with 81 sales over US$10 million in late 2025, and home prices rose 3.3% last year, marking the first increase in four years. Wall Street firms predict further price growth this year.

Businesstimes News

Hong Kong hikes stamp duty for luxury homes as sales rebound

Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan forecasts economic growth of 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 2026, reflecting confidence after a strong recovery last year. The economy grew 3.5 percent in 2023, the fastest since 2021. Chan highlighted improvements in fiscal health, with a balanced consolidated account and a surplus in the operating account. The government plans to enhance support for citizens and small businesses, potentially increasing tax exemptions and civil servant salaries. Significant funding may be allocated for innovation and cultural tourism, aligning with China's development goals.

- Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Chen Maobo projects economic growth of 2.5% to 3.5% for 2026, reflecting confidence in post-pandemic recovery.  
- This forecast surpasses the previous government estimate of 2% to 3% for 2025, highlighting significant financial improvements, including a surplus in operational accounts.  
- The government aims to enhance support for citizens and small businesses while planning investments in key sectors like technology and rural tourism, amidst cautious financial management.

Hong Kong sees fast growth continuing into 2026 on rebound

Hong Kong's Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, announced proposed enhancements to the Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) system to protect employee rights and increase investment flexibility. The government plans to consult stakeholders and submit amendment bills, expanding the MPF 'Full Portability' scheme. Additionally, regulations on money lenders will be strengthened. The budget proposal aims to enhance Hong Kong's corporate treasury role, with new tax incentives and a pre-approval mechanism. Legislative amendments will also facilitate internal corporate restructuring and explore tax incentives for gold trading institutions.

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Hong Kong Proposes Enhancements to MPF and Corporate Finance Regulations

The Hang Seng Index rose over 1% in the afternoon

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The Financial Secretary Paul Chan stated that the plan is to raise the combined borrowing limit for green bonds and infrastructure bonds from the previously announced HKD 700 billion to HKD 900 billion. Over the next five years, the government will issue approximately HKD 160 billion to HKD 220 billion in bonds each year, with about half used to refinance short-term debt issued in recent years; in the future, more long-term bonds will be issued to better match the cash flow duration with the funding needs of engineering projects

Budget Proposal: Chan Mo-po expects to issue bonds of approximately HKD 160 billion to HKD 220 billion annually over the next five years

The Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, stated that the investment income of the Exchange Fund reached HKD 330 billion last year, with total assets exceeding HKD 4.1 trillion. To support infrastructure development, he proposed to transfer HKD 150 billion from the Exchange Fund to the Capital Works Reserve Fund over the next two financial years, with HKD 75 billion each year. In addition, the surplus of the bond fund is expected to exceed HKD 150 billion, and the government will submit a resolution to the Legislative Council, planning to transfer the surplus to the government's consolidated account in the 2026/27 fiscal year

The "Budget" foreign exchange fund will transfer a total of HKD 150 billion to the Capital Works Reserve Fund over the next two financial years to support infrastructure development

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)has evolved into a hybrid market that reflects China’s economic cycle more than Hong Kong’s domestic fundamentals. Its performance is increasingly driven by mainland policy follow-through, earnings durability in platform and financial stocks, and cross-border capital flows via Stock Connect. Valuation alone is no longer a catalyst; sustained upside depends on whether policy support translates into real profit recovery and renewed confidence from long-term global investors.

$XTALPI(02228.HK) The first to rise in the Hong Kong stock watch list! Push it up!

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The exchange rate of HKD against USD is rising rapidly. Will there still be big opportunities in Hong Kong stocks? $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK)

While the US stock market hovers under the shadow of tariffs, the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a liquidity-driven structural frenzy. But is this 'Hong Kong stocks feast' the beginning of a trend revaluation, or a short-lived bubble induced by capital?From a macro perspective, the weak dollar cycle and the abundance of Hong Kong dollar liquidity are the core drivers of the Hong Kong stock market. In May, US tariff revenue surged to a peak of $22 billion, yet the CPI remained stable, coupled with the potential impact of immigration policies on the job market, the probability of a Fed rate cut in June-July is extremely low. The US stock market remains in a tug-of-war between 'chicken ribs market and downside risk.' In contrast, the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has quickly slid from the strong-side guarantee to the weak-side edge, HIBOR rates are nearly zero, and the abundant liquidity is flooding into new consumption, innovative drugs, and A/H premium targets, driving both blue-chip dividend stocks and growth assets higher.However, the sustainability of the structural revaluation of Hong Kong stocks is highly dependent on the liquidity environment. The current extremely low level of HIBOR has deviated from the US benchmark interest rate. If the Fed's policy shifts or there are changes in the supply and demand of funds, a liquidity retreat could trigger a valuation correction. More critically, the structural premium of the same asset in Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares lacks fundamental support. In a market dominated by southbound funds, caution is needed against the risk of valuation overshoot under 'capital frenzy.'In the short term, as long as the cost of borrowing in Hong Kong dollars remains low, there is still room for liquidity-driven revaluation to continue. However, in the long term, whether Hong Kong stocks can escape the 'capital market' dilemma depends on whether corporate earnings can take over liquidity as the anchor of valuation. Investors need to closely monitor changes in HIBOR rates and maintain sensitivity to risks amid the liquidity feast. $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)When the Hong Kong dollar triggers the strong-side convertibility undertaking, the Hong Kong government will be forced to issue Hong Kong dollars to buy US dollars (unless Hong Kong abandons the linked exchange rate system due to another crisis caused by excessive base money).Short-term may benefit the Hong Kong stock market.

On a weekly basis, the southbound capital flow in Hong Kong stocks was a net outflow in the past week. This is unusual, as it's the first time this has happened in at least over a year. $HSTECH ETF(03032.HK) $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

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Xiaomi HK SDR 2to1

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$XTALPI(02228.HK)$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)This is a key macro indicator for Hong Kong stocks.

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $XTALPI(02228.HK) Who should be blamed for these poor souls in Hong Kong stocks today? Sigh... damn it

During the 2018 trade war, Gao Shanwen gave a relatively well-known internal speech:Our generation has already made enough money, so young people should just wash up and go to sleep.As for the 2025 tariff war, what I want to say is: young people might not be able to sleep.$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)$Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US)

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Another day protected by southbound capital! At 13:30 in the afternoon, the southbound capital suddenly surged, and the intraday chart skyrocketed after a 10-minute delay (did you day trade during these 10 minutes? 😂).Unlike yesterday, the southbound capital first rose and then fell in the morning, showing overall weakness. By 13:30, the net purchase was only 1.5 billion. After the surge, the cumulative net purchase for the day reached 5.15 billion. Compared with yesterday, I'm more convinced that there is a will behind the southbound capital.$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $BABA-W(09988.HK) $TENCENT(00700.HK)

BP#HSI RP2812C(55935.HK)

News: The government's accounts for the 2025/26 fiscal year are expected to turn a profit ahead of schedule, with the debt ratio remaining very robust

News: "A Symphony of Lights" may end this year, and the Hong Kong Tourism Board will launch a brand new light and shadow parade performance

Sun Yuhan: In the fourth quarter of last year, the unemployment rate for youth aged 15 to 39 was 4.8%

Sun Dong: The government is researching improvements to the "Digital Transformation Support Pilot Program," which is expected to require an additional allocation of HKD 300 million, with consultations to the Legislative Council in the second half of the year

Chen Guoji: The "Budget" moderately strengthens support for citizens and local businesses, responding to the needs of different social strata